E-GIANTS
Dave Klein was the Giants' beat writer
for The Star-Ledger from 1961 to 1995.
He is the author of 26 books and he is one of
only four sportswriters to have covered all the Super Bowls.
Dave has allowed TEAM GIANTS to reprint some of his articles.

WOULD DAVID CARR REALLY STEP IN AND UP TO MAKE US FORGET ABOUT ELI MANNING?

(Sometimes the readers provide material for another story, which is exactly the case in this offering today from Aaron Klein. He penned an article last week wondering which positions would be hurt the most if the starter(s) were injured for a long period of time, even as long as the full season, and in there he said something like "if Eli Manning does go down, there is a disaster brewing." But a reader of E-GIANTS expressed perhaps too rosy a picture of David Carr and his potential as Eli's replacement. Hence, the subject of today's sermon.)

By AARON KLEIN
Last week, a diligent E-GIANTS reader pointed out that I may have too easily glossed over a potential loss of quarterback Eli Manning in a story about what-if injuries and their likely impact on the team. It was written that the loss of any franchise quarterback would be so obviously disastrous that the subject required very little space.

The reader begged to differ and pointed out that backup David Carr would do a better-than-admirable job and that he would flourish behind the best offensive line of his career, according to the reader. In the process, the "more athletic" Carr would lead the Giants into the playoffs, finishing with better statistics than would Manning. The reader also suggested that general manager Jerry Reese would then get the idea that Carr would be a bargain, prompting the team to consider using saved cap money at other positions.

What? Did he suggest that Carr is a better option than Manning? That Carr would be a bargain and that Manning could then be sent to the open market?

Is he nuts?

Well, I can't say if the dear reader is a few eggs short of an omelet, but he brings out an interesting if uncomfortable subject matter, one that begs for a more in depth discussion.

For those of you who have not yet fainted and are still reading, do not -- repeat, do not -- throw Manning's Super Bowl 42 MVP award as the only proof anyone needs that he is, for lack of a better term, great.

Quarterback Doug Williams was MVP of Super Bowl XXII. Wide receiver Desmond Howard won the title after his performance in Super XXXI. Quarterback Mark Rypien was the Super Bowl XXVI MVP and Kurt Warner won the Super Bowl XXXIV MVP award.

The aforementioned were very good players whose excellent performance in a single game wrote their names in history, but being named Super Bowl MVP doesn't necessarily validate an entire career.

Dig this.

Over Manning's career (2004-2008), he has completed 1,276 passes on 2,284 attempts for a 55.9 completion percentage. He has thrown for 14,623 yards (a 6.4-yard average) and 98 touchdowns against 74 interceptions. He has taken 120 sacks and his overall passer rating is 76.1 going into the 2009 season.

Carr has been in the league since 2002 and in that time has hit 1,325 of 2,128 passes (a 59.7 completion percentage). Overall, his 14,141 yards were good for a 6.4-yard average. He has hit 64 touchdowns (nearly all with Houston) against 70 interceptions while taking 263 sacks (76 in his first season), for a passer rating of 74.9.

Now, before you start nervously pacing over those stunningly similar statistics, especially the comparison of quarterback passer ratings -- 76.1 for Manning, 74.9 for Carr -- statistics do not tell the whole picture. Granted, Carr managed some decent numbers, but he had only three quality seasons in Houston and, in a nod to our fearless reader, played behind an awful offensive line, thus the 263 career sacks (all but 14 were registered with the Texans).

He has struggled to lead the team anywhere great, though with the talent Houston has now he must be wondering what might have been. How do you think Manning would have done with the then-expansion Houston Texans from, say 2002 to 2005?

The big statistical victory for Manning, other than wins, playoffs and a Super Bowl appearance, is the number of career touchdowns/interceptions ratio. Manning sports 98 touchdowns and 74 interceptions while Carr has just 64 touchdowns against 70 picks.

That's how you win games, David.

Our reader has surmised that if Manning were to go down, Carr would excel. Not so fast. In 2007, Carr started four games (played in six) for the Carolina Panthers in his only season with the club. His stats: 73 completions on 136 attempts for a 53.7 completion percentage, 635 yards (4.7 yards per pass), three touchdowns, five interceptions, 13 sacks and a passer rating of 58.3. Carr also took off running 17 times for 59 yards and fumbled once. The 2007-2008 Carolina Panthers were 7-9 and missed the playoffs.

That's not exactly taking the bull by the horns, is it?

Comparing Carr's athleticism and running ability to Manning's is basically moot. We know Manning is a virtual statue out there. Frankly, there aren't too many quarterbacks in history who are ready to run when they simply can't find his primary. Sure, you're screaming "John Elway!" and you're right, but guys like Elway, athletic, scrambling and championship-caliber quarterbacks, are in a small category. Fine, here are a few: Elway, Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick... you don't have to send other examples of scrambling quarterbacks I may have missed (I'm sure I missed more than one, but you get the point).

Elway and Young are probably the best examples of successful quarterbacks with solid rushing stats (4.239 yards on 722 carries, 43 touchdowns); Elway notched 3.407 yards on 774 attempts with 33 touchdowns. Tarkenton's numbers were similar.

But give me Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Roger Staubach, Peyton Manning, Phil Simms, Bart Starr, Tom Brady, guys who won games throwing the ball when they had to, taking a sneak or a dive only when it was absolutely necessary.

In the end, Tarkenton led the Minnesota Vikings to three Super Bowls but lost all three. Elway started five Super Bowl games and won twice (the last two) and Young technically won three Super Bowl rings, though two were as Montana's backup.

For all the success of Elway, Young and Tarkenton, if you don't think for one second that their respective coaches weren't holding their collective breaths every time their horse took off running then you are sorely misguided.

Which brings us back to the other guys, the ones who don't record major rushing statistics, Manning included. While I can't say Eli is the greatest quarterback of all time, or is even headed in that direction, I would take him as the starter over Carr every day, every play, and there is no way Reese is looking for a bargain quarterback and every team that does becomes a quick failure.

That strategy, my friends, is not in the Giants' mission statement.

Check out Dave's website at E-GIANTS where you can subscribe to his newsletters which run much more frequently than what is available here.
- Team Giants

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